Public Education

San Diego in 2050 … if current trends continue

Cuyamaca Rancho State Park in recovery after the 2003 wildfire. Under current climate change scenarios, San Diego is expected to experience a higher risk of wildfires. Credit: SDSU Wildfires Education Project

Cuyamaca Rancho State Park in recovery after the 2003 wildfire. Climate change puts San Diego at higher wildfire risk, scientists say. Credit: SDSU Wildfires Education Project

What will it be like to live in San Diego in 2050? We might imagine traffic, or home prices, a more urban environment. More technology, more people. But what about our changing climate? How will it impact our quality of life?

Many of us love San Diego precisely because we love our bluebird skies and sunshine the way they are now. So, what happens to all that love when the weather changes, kinda permanently?

The San Diego Foundation in 2008 published a report on San Diego’s changing climate and what it means to all of us. The report, authored by a collection of heavy-hitting scientists and other local big wigs, was supposed to be a “wake-up call” for local citizens. Like many, I hit snooze.

The foundation is now updating the first report as part of a National Science Foundation project called Climate Education PartnersThe second report, slated for release in 6 to 9 months, will incorporate new science findings and highlight bright spots in how our community is taking action and thinking about things differently, says Nicola Hedge, the San Diego Foundation’s climate initiative manager.

I thought it would be interesting to revisit the first set of predictions, in light of the new ones that will be out soon. It should be fascinating to  learn what predictions for our region have changed (i.e., sea-level rise scenarios or precipitation patterns) and the science behind why.

Here are the CliffsNotes from the first report.

In 2050, if current trends in greenhouse-gas emissions continue:

1) San Diego’s climate will be hotter and drier. Early November will “feel” like September does now. Peak summer daytime temperatures will rise 6 degrees or more throughout the county.

The bayside beaches of Mission Beach in San Diego are predicted to flood during high tide by 2050.

If current trends continue, most streets in Mission Beach, San Diego will flood regularly during high tide by 2050. Credit: San Diego Foundation

2) Sea level will rise 12 to 18 inches. Existing tide pools and low-lying beaches will be lost. The bayside beaches of Mission Beach will be totally flooded during high tides. Other low-lying areas, notably Coronado and Imperial Beach, are also at risk.

3) Increased demand for water. With both population and economic growth, San Diego County’s thirst for water will increase about 37 percent. That is doubly bad news since our region’s major supplies of freshwater – from the Colorado River and snowpack in the Sierra Nevada Mountains – are dwindling.

4) Higher risk of wildfires. Expect up to a 20-percent increase in the number of days with ideal conditions for wildfires annually.

5) Native plant and animal species will migrate to new habitats and others will become extinct. There will be widespread loss of trees and forests from wildfires, drought and insect attacks.

Screen Shot 2013-05-16 at 5.48.53 PM6) Worse air quality. More hot, sunny days will increase smog. The boost in ozone pollution will exacerbate asthma and other respiratory and cardiovascular diseases.

7) Higher demand for electricity. Our region will use at least 60 percent more electricity and our peak energy demand will rise by more than 70 percent, with warmer weather causing about 7 percent of the increase.

For the unabridged version of the  report, including a full list of the scientists and others who contributed, visit the San Diego Foundation or download the PDF  ”San Diego’s Changing Climate: A Regional Wake-up Call.”

Written by Christina  S. Johnson, csjohnson@ucsd.edu

__

NOAA’s California Sea Grant College Program is a statewide, multi-university program of marine research, extension services, and education activities administered by Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California, San Diego. It is one of 33 Sea Grant programs and is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), U.S. Department of Commerce. Visit our website (www.csgc.ucsd.edu) to sign up for email news or follow us on Facebook or Twitter.

About these ads

One thought on “San Diego in 2050 … if current trends continue

  1. California is starting to do just what you are mentioning – adapt and prepare for sea level rise and other coastal impact’s of climate change. I think the jargon is resiliency and hazard planning, or something like that The water issue, especially for Southern California, is most worrisome. I am not sure what we can do as consumers except conserve and zero-scape (i.e. pull up that water-hogging lawn.) Thanks reading us Dagmar!

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s